2020 Hiring Trends

Posted on January 7, 2020January 7, 2020 by JMJ Phillip

2020 is here. The 2019 year of hiring has come to an end, and recruiters and hiring managers are jumping headfirst in the 2020 job market. After a tough climate for hiring in 2019 and just 6 days into the new year, what trends can recruiting firms expect to see over the course of 2020?

Recruiters and Hiring Managers looking to increase and grow their business with top talent candidates in 2020

Before we get into that, let’s take a look back and rewind to 2018 with some stats.

In 2018, on average, 12% of candidates who applied for jobs were asked for an interview. Out of those interviewed, 28% received a job offer. (Jobvite 2019 Recruiting Benchmark Report)
Recruiters estimate they will pay entry-level employees an average of $56,532 in 2019 and 2020—a jump of over $10,000 compared to 2018
The average time to fill a position was 40 days in 2018 (Jobvite)
91% of tech companies planned to invest in sourcing tools and technology in 2018 (Entelo 2018 Recruiting Trends Report)
Channels such as Facebook and Instagram, are gaining popularity in recruitment. Especially Instagram: 35% of millennial recruiters and 63% of recruiters working in the tech industry used Instagram to source candidates in 2018—double the numbers from the previous year (Jobvite)

Now, before we get into 2020, let’s take a look at this article from Jobbatical on current 2019 hiring statistics, job market trends and data.

A total of 31% of recruiters list the quality of the hire as the measurement of their success, while 23% of recruiters consider the retention rate as their primary measurement. One- to three business days are dedicated to training prospective hires by 39% of recruiters in order to improve the retention rate.
It takes an average of 27 working days to acquire a new hire.
Of recruiters, 45% are having difficulty filling positions due to a shortage of talent.
At least 84% of organizations are currently using social media for recruitment and 9% of those who don’t use it yet are planning to.
Requirements for strong conversational skills and enthusiasm have declined by more than 20% among recruiters.
A four-year college degree makes an entry-level candidate competitive in the job market according to 87% of recruiters.
Video technology is being used by 60% of hiring managers and recruiters. A survey of 506 companies showed 47% use video interviewing to shorten the hiring timeframe, and 22% would consider it for interviewing candidates that aren’t local.
Through recruiter negotiations, 68% of businesses “have increased the average salary offer for candidates in the last year.”
75% of recruiters have experienced a candidate “change their mind.” In 53% of the cases, it was because they received a better offer.
Reportedly, 77% of recruiters go back and hire someone who didn’t appear to be a fit initially.

Based on data gathered from JMJ, here are some key things we’ve seen over the course of the year, and how we can see them trending into the new year.

What we saw in 2019: An increased desire by hiring committees to see a diversity of candidates. Even if it meant delaying the extension of an offer to a stellar candidate who completed the interview process already and performed well. There was also a dynamic of not wanting to miss out on someone that didn’t surface in the initial search efforts.

2020 Trend: Clients will continue to wait to ensure that they have the perfect person for the role.

What we saw in 2019: More and more emphasis was placed on “culture fit” and personality traits that aligned well with the company’s current executive staff. These organizations wanted to hire someone that would play nicely with the rest of the team. Furthermore, they wanted to avoid hiring someone that would rock the boat too much. This played into turnover and retention improvement plans as well.

2020 Trend: Companies will continue to put a heavy emphasis on hiring a candidate with the personality traits to fit into their culture. In many cases, hiring an aggressive change agent can lead to a ruffled staff who decide to look for work elsewhere.

What we saw in 2019: We saw a slowdown of hiring around holidays such as the 4th of July and Christmas. With the economy being stronger, it seemed like more people were traveling for vacations, which can ultimately slow the interview process down a bit.

2020 Trend: Candidates will continue traveling around the holiday seasons, slowing down the interview and hiring process. Recruiters and hiring managers will need to adjust accordingly.

What we saw: We worked more on executive level (VP and above) searches, as we plan to continue doing this year. We saw that companies were extending the interview process (vetting process) with candidates. 4-9 interviews were typically conducted before an offer would go out, getting multiple people involved in the hiring process. They weren’t only involving the leadership team the individual will be reporting to, but also the future direct reports of the candidate to get full buy-in. This made it a bit more challenging to place someone as one bad review throughout the process from one out of the many interviewers could remove someone from the process. Like our Managing Director Dennis Theodorou had mentioned before, this was not favorable to get a placement – too many cooks in the kitchen.

2020 Trend: Interview processes will shorten over the course of 2020, as companies will look to avoid getting a bad review on sites such as Glassdoor.

What we saw: Mediums like Skype and Teams were still popular, but also the prerecorded video interviews that allowed candidates to complete them on their own schedule and submit them when finished had been used by a few companies with mixed reviews from candidates. Some really liked the flexibility, others felt it was awkward.

2020 Trend: Jobs will conduct interview processes in this manner, and video interviewing will continue to grow in popularity.

What we saw: Hiring with an emphasis on succession planning. More than ever, clients wanted to hire someone who could be successful in the positions we were recruiting for as well as the position above it. In many cases, this lead to identifying someone who was overqualified for the job we were recruiting for but was also interested in the long-term opportunity to grow with an exciting company.

2020 Trend: Companies will look to develop new leaders when hiring by implementing more leadership training programs

How do you have to plan to be successful in 2020?

In order to be successful in the 2020 job market, there will have to be a strong emphasis on continuing current practices while also finding new ways to attract the top talent in the market. The company that is open-minded in its hiring approach will be the company that will come out on top in acquiring top talent in the 2020 job market. Even in a time where there’s an evident shortage of talent, tackling the market with a hawk’s eye and changing your recruitment process by taking a more flexible approach to recruiting to cater to the candidate will have a positive impact on your recruitment team’s efforts.

Oakland County Annual Economic Outlook Luncheon 2018

Posted on April 28, 2018April 28, 2018 by JMJ Phillip

Business, education, and community leaders from around Oakland County, Michigan met in Troy last Thursday for the Oakland County Annual Economic Outlook Luncheon 2018. Representatives from JMJ Phillip Group were in attendance to monitor the economic pulse of the county and state. Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson along with the Oakland County Department of Economic Development & Community Affairs teamed up with “respected University of Michigan economists [to] present their three-year forecast on the county’s economic future.” Presenters included Dr. Gabriel Ehrlich and Donald Grimes.

Ehrlich, the Associate Director of the Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics at U of M, held a positive outlook for the coming years in Oakland County. While the 1990s saw vigorous job growth, the next decade slingshotted back down and experienced over 150,000 lost jobs. Most of that 150,000 has been recovered since 2010 and last year the unemployment rate of 3.5% was 0.9% lower than the national average.

Wage growth is up across the board as well; jobs with salaries higher than $75k grew by 22.3%, between $35-75k by 15.4%, and lower than $35k by 24%. Ehrlich attributed the slower growth of the middle wage bracket to job loss in the government sector. The real GDP growth of the 1.25 million person county grew from 1.5% in 2016 to 2.3% in 2017 and Dr. Ehrlich believes that federal fiscal stimulus will be the main focus to continue that growth in the next several years.

Grimes, a senior research area specialist at U of M’s Economic Growth Institute and the assistant director of the Center for Labor Market Research, had more cautious views of the county’s economic future. He believes the greatest risk for the economy is a trade war resulting in 1400 lost jobs but the greatest local risk is exhausting the workforce before the 30,000 jobs lost before the recession are recreated. Grimes stated that the recession hit Oakland County harder than the rest of the state but recovery has also been stronger in the county and he predicts to see a record number of jobs in 2020.

Grimes then gave a breakdown of the county’s growth by industries. Although the government sector experienced job loss up until 2016, it is expected to slowly gain 1900 jobs over the next three years. The private sector is witnessing the fastest gains at 5.9% while the greatest gains are in professional and technical services, health care and social assistance, leisure and hospitality, administrative support, waste management, natural resources, mining, and construction. Grimes also believes the automotive sector will enjoy modest growth.

An unemployment rate of 3.4% is expected for this year and Grimes predicts a rate of 2.6% in 2020 which would be the lowest in the history of their data collection. With a well-educated workforce, low cost of living, and good leadership over the next few years both Grimes and Ehrlich see a prosperous economic future in Oakland County with real wage growth and lower unemployment.

Crain’s Chicago Manufacturing Summit Cliff Notes And Insights

Posted on March 3, 2016April 9, 2016 by JMJ Phillip

Tom Pellette, group president of Caterpillar, was encouraged by the change that the manufacturing industry is seeing as it adopts more automation.
China’s slowdown has hurt its trading partners more than it has affected American Manufacturing.
Manufacturers of affordable luxury goods have seen strong growth in the Midwest and are excited for the coming year.
Growth for the industry as a whole is expected to be at a moderate 1-3%

The Crain’s Manufacturing Summit, the industries forum for the leaders of some of the most recognizable manufacturing firms in the midwest, wrapped up this week in Chicago, IL. Featuring a guest list that would make even Rockefeller blush, the forum allowed for invitees to discuss with local manufacturing leaders about how the market was, how it is, and how it will be.

The summit could not have come at a better time, as when one turns on the financial news, one may suddenly feel a longing for a large blanket to hide under and a drink. “We are about to enter another recession,” one pundit may state as several other armchair economists nod in agreement. Even if one changes the news source, you’ll be met with graphs of the plummeting value of the Yuan or the “catastrophic” affect the “brexit” might have if x happens, on a full moon, in the middle of winter.

However the feeling from the panel was that of cautious optimism, not that of an economic armageddon. Firms aren’t quite ready to state that 2016 is going to be the best year ever, however, from an automation revolution to America’s need for updated infrastructure, things seem to be looking bullish.

A is for Automation

The profile for the manufacturing industry has begun to change. Today’s assembly plants, and the jobs inside, are evolving as the industry enters a technological evolution, pioneered by the rise in automated machinery. And due to the struggle of firms on finding the right workers, Tom Pellette, group president of Caterpillar, was incredibly encouraged by the change. After discussing how 3D printing and the now digital connecting world has lead to a successful push for affordable technology, Mr. Pellette spoke about the boons that this new technology brings – how it reduces downtime, increases productivity, and most importantly, improves safety.

The Caterpillar president was, however, most excited by CAT connect technology. CAT connect makes smart use of technology and services to improve job site efficiency. Using the data from technology-equipped machines, Mr. Pellette hopes to aid clients by getting more information and insight onto their equipment and operations to boost productivity, reduce costs, and improve safety.

The road to autonomy is not a process that will happen over night. It will take time for conventional construction to bring in the capital it needs to purchase and implement automation equipment. However, as more manufacturing firms enter the automated age, Mr. Pellette excitedly spoke about the future and how, from his perspective, we will see a movement towards semi-autonomy, followed by full autonomy in the manufacturing marketplace.

The Challenge of China

While the panel agreed that Europe is a bright spot, China still proves to be a difficult nut to crack. The Chinese government is doing good job at focusing on keeping their economy a consumer country rather than allowing exports to rise. This means that it’s becoming increasingly difficult for foreign manufacturers to compete with domestic Chinese companies for the many lucrative Chinese contracts.

Tom Pellette mentioned that China is currently only at 80% peak in terms of construction, and that there is still room to grow the market space which could allow American firms to theoretically enter. He went on to say that the United States still retains the top spot for manufacturing.

While China’s economy may still be growing at unprecedented levels, it has begun to slow down, which has had serious consequences on many of its trading partners, such as Brazil. The combination of a slowdown in Chinese imports, draught, and corruption have not left the country of Brazil in a good spot. Overall, Mr. Pellete could not respond when asked when he believes their economy will turn around. He did, however, point to Caterpillar group’s profits in the region, which have dropped from 65 billion to 47 billion this year. He went on to speculate a potential 10% decline over the course of this year, which could leave this once promising economy to resemble more of a stray cat than the tiger it was once reported to become.

The Return of the Republic

When discussing the situation on the United States’ own domestic front, the panel’s response was mixed. Jason Asure COO of Vosges Haut, a super premium chocolates manufacturer based in the US, said that Vosges Haut was seeing high single and even double digit growth. As an affordable luxury, their business is looking incredibly strong.

Chris Clawson, executive of Life fitness, a health and fitness brand, also stated that their brand business was looking positive with distributors in 120 countries. Mr. Clawson also spoke about his excitement for growth in the developing year, and the hope to expand to a greater number of countries.

However, both Tom Pellette of Caterpillar and Sagar Patel, president of Woodward, an aerospace and energy parts manufacturer, stressed that while business is mediocre they expect to see slow growth. The numbers discussed were in the range of 1-3% instead of a projected 7% growth in 2016. Mr. Pellete then suggested that due to the fact 54% of Caterpillar’s contracts are now abroad, a changing foreign scene could potentially lead to repercussions domestically.

Regardless of how the 2016 market performs, there are a few steps that we can all take to help keep all manufacturing and related firms healthy.

Remember that innovation is key. When you’re a company that’s innovating, you attract the new generation. Long gone are the days when the labour force was happy to get its hands dirty. This generation of students that are entering the workforce no longer want to work traditional 9-5 jobs. They need to see how the companies of yesterday are in the future today. Firms must show how they have already incorporated today’s technology.

Business leaders must also never forget how you run within your four walls. Always look at cost during the bull or the bear and never allow waste to creep into your business. Work like you’re going bankrupt everyday.

Visit More About The Economy In 2016

Say The Economy Is OK, It’s Not A Crime!

Posted on February 28, 2016March 8, 2016 by JMJ Phillip

Let’s start a new trend this week as we have reached a tipping point. The same kind of tipping point in which Malcolm Gladwell described so vividly in his book on the topic. That tipping point is going to start with everyone waking up tomorrow, looking in the mirror, and saying “the economy is ok” and for the remainder of the day, you quell anyone saying otherwise.

You don’t have to say that the economy is great, amazing or that the boom times are here! Just say, it’s actually OK. Can we, for just one day, not talk about a “recession” even if we can only enjoy it for 24 hours?

You may say this, and the economy may go to hell the next day, it’s possible. We could be in a full blown recession by the end of the year with several quarters of contraction, and knowing that, you should still wake up tomorrow and say, “the economy is ok.”

Let that one day of positivity lead to a new idea, maybe a new way of doing something, either way, use that energy to move forward. Not taking action because you’re worried about tomorrow may cost you more than taking action (what’s the old saying, more is lost in indecision than the wrong decision?)

Why Should I?

Because as of today, the economy is ok and it has been for a couple years. We have our office full of TV’s that run news stories all day about the markets and business in general. Since 2008, people cannot stop talking about the next recession. Back in 2009-2010, all the rage was about a double dip recession, how it would be far worse than what we have already experienced, and it would drag us deeper in the hole for the next 5-10 years….. Well, yeah, it didn’t happen.

And as we stomped our way down to 4.9% unemployment, through 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and now 2016, 6+ years later, you keep hearing about the looming recession. You hear it from economists, from journalists, Wall Street analysts, and everyone else that is still healing from the mental scars of 2008-2009.

The big trend seems to be “I want to make a prediction and when it comes true, I can claim to be an expert, a real clairvoyant” in which they will ride out every dollar they can make off of it until they make a bunch of wrong predictions.

Which is kind of ridiculous, because saying a recession is coming is like predicting the sun will rise tomorrow. Another recession will come, they always do, in all different shapes and sizes, but we cannot fear that. And we really have no idea what our new economy looks like. With technology, industrial automation, robots, and our economy being nearly all services-based, we won’t understand today’s economy until it’s been studied for years, so maybe by 2030, we will understand how the new economy worked in the early 2000’s. Maybe our new world recession is seeing a 1-2% increase in unemployment, maybe we will be stuck at 1.5 to 2% GDP forever as our country is fairly established, at least until the next big thing comes.

Let’s face it, the American consumer likes to spend, we like new cars, new homes, eating out, bigger TV’s, and hell, you cannot wait a full 2 years for a new mobile phone. In fact, you would like that new piece of technology every 12 months!

You really can’t hold this country down, even in 3 feet of mud we keep picking our knees up, trudging forward. Even if we’re slow, we keep moving, we don’t stop, not even for a gawker delay.

Recession doesn’t mean complete financial system collapse like we experienced in 2008; that was a completely different animal. Can or will a collapse like that happen again? Well, sure! But we went from 10% unemployment to 4.9%, so it’s likely in the next 12-24 months we will see some contraction, maybe to 6.5% unemployment, maybe less, maybe more, and then we will get back to business and it will drop again. We cannot go in a straight line forever, progress has ups and some downs before we keep going up.

Here is what we see and hear

• Our manufacturing clients have called us to fill more roles in the last 45 days than we have seen in any other period last year. They note a shortage of talent and with the boomers retiring, it is only making the talent gap worse. Some say hire, then put it on hold. Then they say hire, put it on hold, then back to hire. Their customer demand says they need to hire, but depending on the news that day about oil and the stock market, they may change their mind.

• Looking at our client base across all of our brands with a clientele base ranging from retail to manufacturing to real estate, many still see growth in 2016, even if it’s not massive growth.

• Many clients are sitting on invoices for 60-90-100+ days because they used a lot of their capital to grow in the last 60 months. They were running lean from 2007-2010 and as the economy picked up, they had to make capital expenditures and add headcount again. Many want to grow more but cashflow is an issue. That cashflow isn’t because of the lack of sales, it’s because of too much growth too fast. Credit to businesses may be an issue if the commercial lending tightens up more. Credit to businesses is going to be imperative in the next 24 months.

• With everyone’s cashflow being on the tight side, that is limiting hiring, wage growth, and more capital expenditures. You cannot grow your business or hand out raises if your clients are not paying their bills, because their clients are not paying their bills. This causes a ripple effect all the way down the supply chain.

• Looking way downstream at some of the initial suppliers to manufacturing companies, we get reports that they have quoted a lot of major projects and programs that may be launched this year. They see it as the first half of 2016 being so-so and the last half picking up.

And these issues below are slowing us down

• Many business owners of all sizes note the issue with oil prices and nearly everyone will say, if we can just stabilize at $40-60 a barrel, everyone will basically shut-up and get back to business.

• Companies are not happy with the current political outlook. Not many people like the field of candidates and with this election being far from normal, everyone is going to be on edge until the election is over. Then you say ok, it is what it is, let’s keep moving.

• The sketchy start to the year for the stock market has planted some doubt for many businesses. While election years are typically good for the market, and it’s possible that the market can be down and the economy be up, there is still some doubt being held by businesses. When the stock market levels out a bit, we can still see more positivity coming.

• Ongoing geopolitical issues keep uncertainty high, but does that ever go away? Businesses were shy about being aggressive back when Greece had all their issues, and now it’s Britain and the EU. In reality, there will always be something going on somewhere. The global economic outlook for 2015 wasn’t so great and we are seeing signs that it may be better for 2016. Emerging economies, some in collapse, some on the mend, will hopefully lead to stabilized growth. China may be leveling out, and other central banks have launched negative rates that may have some positive effect on the overall outlook, but the global economy as a whole remains an issue.

Want some positive news?

• As noted, we are at 4.9% unemployment. Yeah yeah, you cannot say that without someone saying “you can’t trust those numbers, it doesn’t count the underemployed and those that stopped looking” and we can say, “fair enough.” Then we say, if you stopped looking for the last 5 years, maybe you’re not a part of the workforce anymore. And if you’re underemployed, please contact JMJ Phillip, Employment BOOST, or anyone one of our other dozen companies, because most of our clients are hurting for good people.

• It won’t be long before we approach 2 million people graduating with a 4 year degree, every year, soon. Our workforce is educated, we can do something with that!

• Oh yeah, back to those not seeking work anymore. In my 25 minute drive to the office (Metro Detroit Area), I counted 22 places with hiring signs a couple weeks ago. The most I have seen since, 2004-2005 maybe? While many may not be high paying, many business owners need people! There is money to be made if you want to make it. Talk to a small business owner and they are likely to tell you that they are looking forward to summer so that they can pick up some workers home from school.

• Hiring demand continues to tick up for most of our clients across the country.

• Every time you hear bad news about manufacturing, 4 weeks later, there is another news article talking about how manufacturing jobs are soaring. Ups and downs again, which is normal.

• Consumer sentiment report put out by the University of Michigan shows some recovery over the last 6 months.

• Automotive sales in 2015 hit an all time record.

• Mortgage rates have dropped even after the Feds 25 basis point rise and the new home industry predicts more growth to go along with that.

• We are seeing organic wage growth in the tight talent markets for manufacturing professionals, engineers, technology professions, and the all encompassing supply chain vertical.

• Durable goods orders surged in January

• Economy was stronger in the 4th Quarter 2015 than previously believed

• US companies are holding over $2 Trillion Dollars in cash, and while many note this as a negative, there are some positives. In bad times, those with capital reserves add stability to the market which is something that is often greatly undervalued. Five of the top 10 companies with the greatest savings are technology companies where often the capital investment for new products isn’t as heavy as something like automotive. Although, General Motors is hanging on to the number 10 spot on that list.

Summary

Someone can likely write an article just like this with the same amount of information, but showing why we are not in good shape. We will never be in perfect shape and there will never be an immaculate economy. But, it is time to stop talking about recession all the time even if we are in one. If you keep saying something enough, you just may get what you wished for and I doubt that no one, minus the short sellers, is wishing for a recession.

As I prefer to be a realist, I don’t want to deny some underlying issues with the economy, we have some bumpy roads ahead. But the nonstop talk of a recession can also have a negative effect on business and the economy.

Can we just say that we recovered pretty well since 2008 and that it’s not a crime to say that? Even if we are in a recession the next quarter, we have to be able to say in the prior 6 years that we were OK, that we went from complete disaster to a decent recovery. While we still have a long way to go, and we have many bumps along this road still, in the next 10 years we can have a great economy that is resilient to many of those bumps.

So for one day let’s remove the word “recession” from our vocabulary and use that brain time to be creative, develop or hone a new idea or strategy, and figure out how we can take 3 steps forward instead of worrying about taking any steps at all.

When adverse times hit, you cannot roll up in a ball and hide, that is usually the best time to strike.

Let’s keep our heads down, work hard, and do business like America always has.

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